Line Movement Tracking

Line Movement Tracking

Betting lines don't stay static. Learn to read and profit from line movements.

What Causes Lines to Move

Betting Volume

• Heavy action on one side: Sportsbooks move line to balance action
• Public money: Often creates predictable movement
• Sharp money: Large, informed bets move lines quickly

News and Information

• Injuries: Star player out = significant move
• Weather: Wind, rain, snow impact totals and spreads
• Lineup changes: Starting QB, key players

Respected Money

• Syndicates and professional bettors
• Books respect their action and move lines
• Often move lines before public is aware

Types of Line Movement

Steam Move

• What it is: Sudden, rapid line movement across multiple books
• Cause: Sharp money hitting multiple sportsbooks simultaneously
• How to use: Follow the steam (bet same side as sharp money)

Reverse Line Movement (RLM)

• What it is: Line moves OPPOSITE of public betting %
• Example: 75% of bets on Team A, but line moves toward Team B
• Meaning: Sharp money on Team B, books respect it
• How to use: Bet with the RLM (Team B in example)

Line Freeze

• What it is: Line doesn't move despite heavy one-sided action
• Meaning: Book is confident in current number
• May indicate: Sharp money on less popular side

Key Number Moves

• Moving through 3, 7, 10, 14 (common margins)
• Example: -6.5 to -7.5 crosses key number 7
• More significant than -5.5 to -6.5

Reading Line Movement Charts

CFB Analytics shows:

• Opening Line: First number posted (often Sunday)
• Current Line: Latest number
• Line History: All movements with timestamps
• Betting %: Public money distribution
• Money %: Dollar amount (sharp money indicator)

Timing Your Bets

Early Week (Sunday-Tuesday)

Pros:

• Softer lines before sharp money arrives
• Value opportunities
• Beat steam moves

Cons:

• Injury news may not be known
• Weather not finalized
• Risk of adverse line movement

Mid-Week (Wednesday-Thursday)

Pros:

• Lines more established
• Injury reports coming out
• Sharp money has weighed in

Cons:

• Best value may be gone
• Have to lay worse number than early week

Game Day (Friday-Saturday)

Pros:

• All information available
• Final injury reports
• Weather forecast accurate

Cons:

• Best numbers long gone
• Limited value
• May miss opportunity entirely

Line Movement Strategies

Following Steam

1. Set up line alerts
2. When steam hits, bet quickly
3. Get best number before further movement
4. Accept slight worse number than steam to ensure bet

Fading Public Money

1. Identify games with 70%+ on one side
2. Check if line moving opposite direction (RLM)
3. Bet against the public
4. Sharp money agrees with you

Buying the Number

• Pay extra vig to get better number
• Worth it on key numbers (3, 7)
• Example: Pay -130 for +7 instead of -110 for +6.5

Red Flags

Be cautious when you see:

• Massive overnight moves: Sharp money has information you don't
• Line moving back and forth: Uncertainty, conflicting info
• Books disagree significantly: No consensus, tough game

Tools on CFB Analytics

Line Movement Dashboard

• See all games with line movement
• Filter by amount moved (1+, 2+, 3+ points)
• Highlight reverse line movement

Betting Percentages

• Public betting % (ticket count)
• Public money % (dollar amount)
• Spread between them reveals sharp action

Line Alerts

• Set alerts for specific line moves
• Notify when line reaches target number
• Never miss steam moves

Common Mistakes

• ❌ Chasing steam too late
• ❌ Ignoring why line moved
• ❌ Assuming all movement is sharp
• ❌ Not considering news/injuries
• ✅ Understand context of movement
• ✅ Combine with other analysis
• ✅ Be patient for your number