ATS Trends Analysis

ATS Trends Analysis

Against the Spread (ATS) records reveal which teams consistently beat Vegas expectations.

What is ATS?

Against the Spread measures betting performance:

• Team covers spread = ATS win
• Team doesn't cover = ATS loss
• Push (exact spread) = no ATS decision

Example: Team is 8-4 overall but 5-7 ATS

• Wins games but doesn't meet betting expectations
• Overvalued by public/oddsmakers

Understanding ATS Records

Team ATS Records

• Overall ATS: All games combined
• Home ATS: Performance at home
• Away ATS: Performance on road
• As Favorite: When favored
• As Underdog: When underdog
• Conference ATS: Conference games only

What Good ATS Means

• 8-2 ATS: Consistently exceeds expectations
• 3-7 ATS: Consistently underperforms expectations
• 5-5 ATS: Meets expectations (coin flip)

ATS Trends to Watch

Home/Away Splits

• Some teams cover better at home
• Others perform better as road underdogs
• Look for significant differences (4+ game splits)

As Favorite vs. Underdog

• Good as favorite, bad as underdog: Dominant teams
• Good as underdog, bad as favorite: Public overvalues them

After Win/Loss

• Teams ATS record after wins
• Teams ATS record after losses
• Identify letdown or bounce-back teams

Divisional/Conference Games

• Performance in conference play
• Familiarity breeds different results

By Spread Range

• How team performs when favored by 7+, 14+, etc.
• How team performs as small vs large underdog

Situational ATS Trends

Revenge Games

• Team playing opponent who beat them last year
• Often motivated, public awareness varies

Look Ahead Spots

• Easy game before big rivalry
• Team may not be fully focused
• Can lead to poor ATS performance

Sandwich Games

• Between two difficult opponents
• Team may overlook middle opponent

Short Rest

• Thursday/Friday games after Saturday
• Travel + short week impacts performance

Using CFB Analytics ATS Tools

Team ATS Dashboard

• View any team's complete ATS record
• Filter by home/away, favorite/underdog
• See trends over time

ATS Matchup Analysis

• Compare both teams' ATS records
• Identify trends in this matchup type
• Historical head-to-head ATS

ATS Leaderboards

• Best ATS teams this season
• Worst ATS teams (fade candidates)
• Conference ATS leaders

Common ATS Patterns

Public Darlings

• Popular teams often overvalued
• Example: Notre Dame, Texas, Alabama
• Public money inflates lines
• Look to fade when overinflated

Group of 5 Underdogs

• Often undervalued against P5
• Good ATS records in non-conference
• Less public attention = softer lines

Bad Teams Getting Points

• Even bad teams cover large spreads
• Garbage time scores matter
• 20+ point spreads risky

ATS Betting Strategy

Fade the Public

• When 70%+ of bets on one side
• But line hasn't moved
• Sharp money likely on other side

Follow Sharp Money

• Line movement against public %
• Example: 75% on Team A, but line moves toward Team B

Situational Spots

• Identify recurring patterns
• Back teams in good situational spots
• Fade teams in tough spots

ATS Record Limitations

Don't rely solely on ATS records:

• Small sample size early in season
• Regression to the mean likely
• Past performance doesn't guarantee future
• Context matters (strength of schedule)

Tracking ATS Performance

CFB Analytics automatically tracks:

• Every team's ATS record
• Updated after each game
• Historical ATS trends
• ATS in specific situations