Betting Strategy & Bankroll Management

Betting Strategy & Bankroll Management

Long-term success in betting requires discipline, strategy, and proper bankroll management.

Bankroll Fundamentals

What is a Bankroll?

• Total amount set aside specifically for betting
• Should be money you can afford to lose
• Completely separate from living expenses
• Never borrow or use credit for bankroll

Setting Your Bankroll

• Determine affordable amount
• Typically $500-$5,000 for recreational bettors
• Must last entire season
• Don't replenish if you lose it

Unit Sizing

What is a Unit?

• Standard bet size, usually 1-5% of bankroll
• Example: $1,000 bankroll, 1 unit = $10-50
• Protects against variance
• Allows for long-term growth

Recommended Unit Sizes

• Standard bet: 1 unit (most bets)
• Strong confidence: 2-3 units
• Max bet: Never more than 5 units
• Tracking plays: 0.5 units (experimental)

Bet Sizing Strategy

Flat Betting

• Same unit size on every bet
• Simplest, most conservative
• Recommended for beginners
• Protects against tilt

Confidence-Based Sizing

• Scale units by confidence level
• High confidence: 2-3 units
• Medium confidence: 1-2 units
• Low confidence: 0.5-1 unit or pass

Kelly Criterion

• Mathematical formula for optimal bet size
• Based on edge and bankroll
• Often too aggressive (use half Kelly)
• Advanced strategy, requires accurate edge estimation

Record Keeping

Track every bet you make:

• Date and time
• Game and matchup
• Bet type (spread, total, ML)
• Line and odds
• Unit size
• Result (W/L/P)
• Profit/Loss
• Notes (reasoning, situational factors)

Measuring Performance

Key Metrics

• ROI (Return on Investment): Profit / Total Amount Wagered
• Win Rate: Wins / Total Bets
• Units Won: Total profit in units
• Closing Line Value: How often you beat closing line

Benchmarks

• Break even: 52.4% at -110 odds
• Good win rate: 55-57%
• Elite win rate: 58-60%
• Positive ROI: 3-5% is excellent

Betting Rules & Discipline

Core Rules

1. Never bet more than 5% of bankroll
2. Never chase losses with bigger bets
3. Set daily/weekly loss limits
4. Take breaks after bad streaks
5. Don't bet on your favorite team (bias)
6. Have a reason for every bet
7. Line shop for best odds
8. Track everything

Avoiding Tilt

• Set stop-loss limits (3 losses in a day = done)
• Don't increase bet size after losses
• Take 24-48 hour breaks after bad beats
• Remember long-term perspective

Line Shopping

Always have accounts at multiple books:

• Half-point differences matter
• Save 10-20 cents on juice adds up
• Different books have different lines

Example:

• Book A: Team -6.5 (-110)
• Book B: Team -6 (-115)
• Book C: Team -7 (-105)
• Shop for your specific number

Common Betting Mistakes

• ❌ Betting too much per game (>5%)
• ❌ Chasing losses with bigger bets
• ❌ Betting on every game
• ❌ Not shopping for best line
• ❌ Letting emotions dictate bets
• ❌ Not tracking results
• ❌ Betting favorites blindly
• ❌ Ignoring bankroll management

Advanced Strategies

Specialization

• Focus on specific conferences
• Become expert in totals
• Specialize in underdogs
• Deep knowledge beats surface-level analysis

Contrarian Betting

• Fade the public (bet against 70%+ public)
• Look for reverse line movement
• Bet teams public hates

Middling

• Bet both sides at different numbers
• Win both if result lands in middle
• Worst case: Push one, lose vig on other

Responsible Gambling

• Set deposit limits on sportsbook accounts
• Never bet with money needed for bills
• If losing more than budgeted, stop
• Seek help if gambling becomes problem
• National Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700

Using CFB Analytics Tools

• Predictions: Identify value vs. lines
• ATS Trends: Find profitable patterns
• Line Movement: Track sharp money
• Matchup Analysis: Deep dive before betting
• Betting Dashboard: Track your performance