Understanding AI Predictions

Understanding AI Predictions

CFB Analytics uses advanced machine learning models to predict college football game outcomes with impressive accuracy.

How Our Models Work

Our prediction system uses:

• Historical Data - 20+ years of game results
• Team Statistics - Offensive, defensive, and special teams metrics
• Advanced Metrics - Success rate, explosiveness, PPA
• Situational Factors - Home/away, weather, rest days
• Recent Form - Team performance trends
• Head-to-Head History - Past matchup results

What We Predict

For each game, our models forecast:

• Win Probability - Likelihood each team wins (0-100%)
• Predicted Score - Expected final score for both teams
• Spread Prediction - Expected point differential
• Over/Under - Total combined points
• Key Factors - What influences the prediction most

Understanding Confidence Scores

Each prediction includes a confidence level:

• High Confidence (70-100%) - Strong indicators favor one team
• Medium Confidence (55-69%) - Clear favorite but not overwhelming
• Low Confidence (<55%) - Toss-up game, very close

Higher confidence doesn't mean the prediction is always correct, but it indicates stronger model agreement.

Model Accuracy

Our historical performance:

• Win/Loss Predictions - 69% correct overall
• Against the Spread - 57% accuracy (beating Vegas baseline)
• Over/Under - 54% accuracy
• Close Games (<7 points) - 62% correct
• Blowouts (>21 points) - 78% correct

What Influences Predictions

Weighted factors in our model:

• Team Strength (30%) - Overall team quality ratings
• Matchup Analysis (28%) - Strengths vs. weaknesses
• Recent Form (15%) - Last 3-5 game performance
• Home Field Advantage (10%) - Location impact
• Situational Factors (10%) - Rest, weather, injuries
• Head-to-Head (7%) - Historical matchup results

Reading Prediction Cards

Each prediction card shows:

• Team Names & Records - Current season records
• Win Probability Bar - Visual representation of chances
• Predicted Score - Expected final score
• Spread - Point differential prediction
• Confidence Badge - High/Medium/Low
• Key Matchups - Critical position battles

When Predictions Are Updated

We update predictions:

• Weekly - Every Sunday after games complete
• Mid-Week - Wednesday if significant news (injuries, etc.)
• Day Before Game - Final update with latest data
• Real-Time - During games for live win probability

Using Predictions Effectively

Do's

• ✓ Use predictions as one input in your analysis
• ✓ Compare our predictions with Vegas lines
• ✓ Consider confidence scores
• ✓ Look at key matchup factors
• ✓ Track prediction accuracy over time

Don'ts

• ✗ Don't bet solely based on predictions
• ✗ Don't ignore low confidence warnings
• ✗ Don't expect 100% accuracy
• ✗ Don't disregard injury news and late-breaking info

Prediction Limitations

Our models can't account for:

• Player injuries reported after prediction
• Weather changes within 48 hours of game
• Motivational factors (senior day, rivalry intensity)
• Coaching changes or staff absences
• Unexpected player performances (breakout games)

Live Win Probability

During games, we show real-time win probability:

• Updates after each drive
• Accounts for score, time remaining, field position
• Shows momentum shifts
• Historical comeback likelihood

Comparing Predictions

View multiple prediction sources:

• CFB Analytics ML Model
• Composite computer rankings
• Vegas implied probability
• Expert picks consensus
• Fan confidence polls