Using Predictions Effectively

Using Predictions Effectively

Our predictions are a powerful tool, but they work best when used correctly. Here's how to get the most value.

The Right Mindset

Predictions Are Probabilities, Not Certainties

A 70% win probability means:

• Team wins 7 out of 10 times in similar situations
• Team still loses 3 out of 10 times
• Upset is possible, just less likely

Use Predictions as Input, Not Gospel

Combine predictions with:

• Your own football knowledge
• Recent news and developments
• Injury reports
• Weather forecasts
• Historical context
• Eye test (how teams look)

Interpreting Confidence Levels

High Confidence (>70%)

• Strong indicators point one direction
• Model is very confident in outcome
• Still not guaranteed - upsets happen
• Good situations for same-game parlays

Medium Confidence (55-69%)

• Clear favorite but not dominant
• Several factors favor one team
• Upset risk is moderate
• Do additional research before decisions

Low Confidence (<55%)

• True toss-up game
• Model can't separate teams
• Slight edge one way
• Great games to watch, risky to bet

Best Use Cases

1. Identifying Value

Compare our predictions to Vegas lines:

• We predict Team A -7, Vegas has Team A -3 → Potential value on Team A
• We predict Team B +10, Vegas has Team B +14 → Potential value on Team A
• Large disagreements merit investigation

2. Finding Upset Alerts

When low-confidence heavily favored teams:

• Vegas line: Favorite -14
• Our prediction: Favorite 56% (low confidence)
• Investigation needed - could be upset brewing

3. Prioritizing Games to Watch

• Low confidence games are usually closer, more exciting
• High-stakes games with playoff implications
• Featured predictions highlight best matchups

4. Season-Long Tracking

• Follow your team's predicted path
• Project final record ranges
• Playoff probability tracking
• Bowl game projection

Prediction Workflows

Daily Check (5 minutes)

1. Visit Predictions page
2. Review your followed teams' games
3. Check confidence scores
4. Note any surprising predictions

Deep Dive (20 minutes)

1. Read prediction analysis
2. Review key matchup factors
3. Check recent form of both teams
4. Compare with Vegas lines
5. Look at injury reports
6. Consider weather impact

Weekly Planning (30 minutes)

1. Review all week's predictions
2. Identify best games to watch
3. Note upset potential
4. Track followed teams
5. Compare predictions week-over-week
6. Analyze prediction changes

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. Ignoring Confidence Scores

❌ Treating 51% and 85% predictions the same way

✅ Weight high-confidence predictions more heavily

2. Not Updating With News

❌ Using Tuesday prediction on Sunday with QB now injured

✅ Check for late-breaking news before game time

3. Recency Bias

❌ Dismissing model after one miss

✅ Track performance over 20+ games

4. Confirmation Bias

❌ Only using predictions that agree with your opinion

✅ Investigate when predictions disagree with you

5. Betting Every Game

❌ Forcing action on low-confidence games

✅ Be selective, wait for clear edges

Advanced Techniques

Line Shopping

• Use predictions to identify best line
• Half-point can make huge difference
• Shop across multiple sportsbooks

Live Betting

• Compare live win probability to live odds
• Look for inefficiencies
• In-game momentum shifts

Prop Betting

• Use predicted score for totals props
• Player props based on matchup analysis
• Quarter/half props from scoring pace

Same Game Parlays

• Combine high-confidence predictions
• Look for correlated outcomes
• Use predicted score for prop legs

Tracking Your Results

Monitor how well predictions work for you:

• Keep a betting log
• Note which confidence levels perform best
• Track by conference, game type, time of season
• Identify your edge (maybe you're better at totals)
• Adjust strategy based on results

When to Fade Predictions

Consider going against predictions when:

• Recent injury not reflected in model
• Extreme weather (snow, hurricane winds)
• Motivational spots (rivalry, revenge game)
• Playoff elimination games (effort concerns)
• Bowl opt-outs announced
• Coaching changes mid-season

Combining With Other Tools

Use predictions alongside:

• Advanced Stats - Verify prediction reasoning
• Betting Trends - Public vs sharp money
• Line Movement - Where is smart money going?
• Team News - Injuries, depth chart changes
• Weather Data - Game-day conditions