Advanced Metrics Guide

Advanced Metrics Guide

Go beyond traditional stats with advanced analytics that reveal the true quality of team performance.

Points Per Play (PPA)

Measures the expected points added on each play:

• What it is: Change in expected points from start to end of play
• Why it matters: More accurate than yards (field position matters)
• Good offense: +0.10 or higher
• Good defense: -0.10 or lower (preventing opponent PPA)

Success Rate

Percentage of plays that are 'successful':

• 1st Down: Gain 50% of needed yards
• 2nd Down: Gain 70% of needed yards
• 3rd/4th Down: Gain 100% (convert)
• Elite: 45%+ on offense, <35% allowed on defense

Explosiveness

Measures big play ability:

• What it is: PPA on successful plays only
• Shows: Team's ability to create explosive gains
• Balance: High success rate + high explosiveness = elite offense

Simple Rating System (SRS)

Overall team strength metric:

• Formula: Point differential adjusted for opponent strength
• Average: 0.0
• Top 10: Usually +15 or higher
• Elite: +20 or more

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Difficulty of team's schedule:

• Calculated: Average opponent SRS
• Positive: Harder schedule
• Negative: Easier schedule
• Important for: Evaluating team records in context

Expected Points Added (EPA)

Total points added beyond expectation:

• Every yard is not equal (1st & 10 from own 20 vs opponent 20)
• Field position and down/distance matter
• More sophisticated than basic yards

Finishing Drives

Red zone and scoring efficiency:

• Red Zone TD%: Touchdowns per red zone trip
• Red Zone Points: Points per red zone trip
• Points Per Trip: Including all possessions

Third Down Efficiency

Critical situational metric:

• Offense: Conversion rate on 3rd downs
• Defense: Opponent conversion rate
• Elite offense: 45%+
• Elite defense: <33%

Havoc Rate

Defensive disruption metric:

• % of plays with TFL, sack, forced fumble, or PBU
• Measures defensive playmaking ability
• Elite: 12%+ havoc rate

Using Advanced Metrics

How to incorporate into analysis:

• Compare teams across multiple metrics
• Look for matchup advantages (strength vs weakness)
• Identify undervalued teams
• Predict game flow and pace
• Find betting edges